Another great post Travis - each one better than the last.
Most of the article you discuss the advantage Russia has with their energy independence and ability to sustain the demands of their own war effort, and you juxtapose that with China’s energy dependence and natural shipping choke point. But additionally, you talk about Russia’s ability to use oil and gas exports as a strategic resource to dampen and delay international backlash. As the world’s second largest economy, one would think China would lean on their role as the heartbeat of global manufacturing to leverage international favor (other than maybe the US). But, presumably labor could eventually be shifted to other countries, which makes me wonder, does China have any strategic assets that the international community is dependent on that would allow them more freedom to make an unpopular military decision?
Great point. Agreed labor is the obvious resource, and a big part of the efforts to onshore, nearshore, and friendshore by the US and its allies is a recognition of the geopolitical risk that relying solely on Chinese labor presents, in addition to Chinese labor just generally getting more expensive due to their expanding middle class.
The other major strategic assets China has are mainly in the minerals and metals space. All of these are super important for net zero and defense technologies, including batteries, wind turbines, guided missiles, etc., and China has commanding shares (many times 50%+) of the global lithium, cobalt, rare earth minerals, copper and other metals supply. They also have commanding shares of many of the value-add stages post production, including processing and refining capability.
A major goal of the US Departments of Defense and Energy right now is to fund and secure alternatives to these Chinese sources, but at least for the short term, China definitely has an advantage here. Luckily for the US, most of these minerals can also be found in the US, South America, and Australia, so the alternatives are viable as long as they are pursued quickly.
Another great post Travis - each one better than the last.
Most of the article you discuss the advantage Russia has with their energy independence and ability to sustain the demands of their own war effort, and you juxtapose that with China’s energy dependence and natural shipping choke point. But additionally, you talk about Russia’s ability to use oil and gas exports as a strategic resource to dampen and delay international backlash. As the world’s second largest economy, one would think China would lean on their role as the heartbeat of global manufacturing to leverage international favor (other than maybe the US). But, presumably labor could eventually be shifted to other countries, which makes me wonder, does China have any strategic assets that the international community is dependent on that would allow them more freedom to make an unpopular military decision?
Great point. Agreed labor is the obvious resource, and a big part of the efforts to onshore, nearshore, and friendshore by the US and its allies is a recognition of the geopolitical risk that relying solely on Chinese labor presents, in addition to Chinese labor just generally getting more expensive due to their expanding middle class.
The other major strategic assets China has are mainly in the minerals and metals space. All of these are super important for net zero and defense technologies, including batteries, wind turbines, guided missiles, etc., and China has commanding shares (many times 50%+) of the global lithium, cobalt, rare earth minerals, copper and other metals supply. They also have commanding shares of many of the value-add stages post production, including processing and refining capability.
A major goal of the US Departments of Defense and Energy right now is to fund and secure alternatives to these Chinese sources, but at least for the short term, China definitely has an advantage here. Luckily for the US, most of these minerals can also be found in the US, South America, and Australia, so the alternatives are viable as long as they are pursued quickly.